01Step 1
Load the guided example
Start with the Hormuz disruption scenario and the seeded sample portfolio so the rest of the walkthrough matches what you see on screen.
Shock Cascade
An explainable macro risk reasoning tool for cascading shocks.
Model geopolitical and macro disruptions across explicit dependencies, sector exposures, and a seeded sample portfolio. The logic is rule-based and transparent by design.
Disclaimer
Educational and scenario-based only. This MVP does not provide investment advice, target prices, or a claim of precision beyond its seeded causal graph.Active shock
Loading...
Geopolitical · Middle East
Highest risk sector
Computing
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Potential beneficiary
None yet
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Portfolio stance
Computing
Waiting for first analysis pass.
Guided walkthrough
Step-by-step way to test the app
Use this five-step flow to learn the product quickly. The walkthrough is grounded in the live model, so the outputs below update as you change the scenario.
Live snapshot
Active preset: Loading...
Highest risk sector: Computing
Potential beneficiary: None yet
02Step 2
Shape the initiating shock
Open the scenario builder, then push severity toward 85-90% and duration toward 5-6 months. This should intensify the commodity and logistics channels.
03Step 3
Pressure-test key assumptions
In assumptions, lower strategic reserves and rerouting ability. That makes the model rely less on buffers and more on direct propagation.
04Step 4
Read the cascade and sector outputs
Check the dependency map and sector table. You should see immediate pain in fuel-sensitive and logistics-linked sectors, with some potential beneficiaries on the other side.
05Step 5
Validate the portfolio and logic trace
Finish by checking the portfolio summary and the logic trace. That is where the app shows exactly which upstream node drove each downstream result and with what weight.
Suggested observation for the walkthrough: after loading the example, make the shock last longer and weaken reserves and rerouting. Then check whether airlines and logistics worsen while energy or defense become more supported. The logic trace should show you the exact path behind that shift.
Scenario builder
Model the initiating shock
Live
Start with a seeded macro shock, then tune severity, duration, policy response, and mitigation assumptions. The backend uses these values to rescale explicit causal edges.
Active preset
A military or sanctions-driven disruption constrains Gulf energy exports and pushes insurance, routing, and fuel costs higher.
Seed drivers
These are the explicit starting nodes for the current preset.
Oil price+0.92
Risk to Gulf export flow pushes crude and refined product pricing higher.
Shipping capacity-0.56
Tankers and insurers treat the chokepoint as higher risk and reduce flow.
Defense spending+0.22
Regional escalation can pull forward security and defense procurement.
Assumptions
Which assumptions are doing the most work
Each slider directly modifies propagation strength on the relevant edges. The driver score below is aggregated from the live cascade, not from a canned narrative.
Strategic reserves
How effectively public stockpiles and emergency releases cap the commodity shock.
42%
Weak bufferStrong buffer
Driver score0.00
Current rolemixed
Strongest links
No live links yet for the current scenario.
Rerouting ability
How much freight and supply can be diverted around bottlenecks without severe slippage.
28%
Hard to rerouteEasy to reroute
Driver score0.00
Current rolemixed
Strongest links
No live links yet for the current scenario.
Substitution capacity
How quickly firms can replace constrained suppliers, materials, or technology.
38%
Limited substitutesMany substitutes
Driver score0.00
Current rolemixed
Strongest links
No live links yet for the current scenario.
Demand destruction
How sharply households and firms reduce demand when costs rise and uncertainty deepens.
58%
Demand holds upDemand weakens fast
Driver score0.00
Current rolemixed
Strongest links
No live links yet for the current scenario.
Policy response speed
How quickly policymakers deploy reserves, subsidies, diplomatic de-escalation, or financial backstops.
46%
Slow responseFast response
Driver score0.00
Current rolemixed
Strongest links
No live links yet for the current scenario.
Portfolio overlay
Enter a sample portfolio
Tickers map to the seeded company universe. Unknown tickers stay visible as unmapped so the app never pretends to know more than it does.
TickerWeight
Total weight: 100%
Weights sum to 100% — fully allocated.
Initializing engine
Computing the first cascade
The client persists your scenario locally and calls the backend analysis route for explainable results.